In recent days, many downstream manufacturers of sponge titanium enterprises have expressed that the market price of sponge titanium is chaotic, and there is no such unity as the price increase and price fixing of the "huddle" in 2019. The transaction price is 65,000 yuan / ton. Is the price of sponge titanium also necessary to learn from the stock market "fuse"? Titanium's willfulness has become titanium's affection, where is your "bottom line" of sponge titanium?
Speaking of the sponge titanium market from "titanium capricious" to "titanium tenderness", the reporter sorted out the analysis of the titanium market from 2015 to 2019, which is consistent, this is more systematic.
In 2015, "Titanium Mills, Titanium Scenery", "Titanium Industry: Prospects and" Traps "."
In 2016, "Sponge Titanium Volume Price" Micro Climbing "Becomes Normal" and "Titanium Industry Needs" Targeted Therapy "".
In 2017, "Six Powers Promote Titanium" Micro-Climb "Slow Growth".
In 2018, "The rise of" Nirvana "in China's titanium industry", "Whether the recovery of sponge titanium can repeat yesterday's story," "The periodic market pattern of sponge titanium gradually drifts away."
In 2019, "Which" cheese "has the price of sponge titanium increased? "The market is still good and the price increase is weak," "Analysis of the titanium market price before and after National Day."
Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's titanium industry has developed steadily, and the titanium market has played a heartbeat like a roller coaster: the price has risen from more than 40,000 yuan / ton in 2004 to more than 200,000 yuan / ton, and then the price has gone down the "altar" "Between 2015 and 2016, it fell back to more than 40,000 yuan / ton. Why? deficit! deficit! deficit! Labor is not rewarded. When the price of titanium sponge fell sharply, market demand was steady and rising. There is no way, overcapacity is bound to bear its own fruit.
Faced with this situation, the reporter analyzed that the titanium industry is a titanium mill, but the titanium scene is still gratifying, and firmly believes that the minimum price of about 42,000 yuan / ton in 2016 has really come to an end, and then the "slight climb" of the sponge titanium volume price Will become the norm. Facts have proved that the six major driving forces of resource price hikes, strict environmental protection, civil product development, aviation traction, cycle attraction, and field expansion have spawned a rigid and slow growth in the market demand for sponge titanium. After 2017, the market price of sponge titanium has been "spring blooming", gradually rising and falling, rising from 50,000 / ton at the end of 2017 to 68,000 yuan / ton at the end of 2018, and from 68,000 yuan / ton at the end of 2018 It rose to 81,000 yuan / ton at the end of 2019. When the price of sponge titanium rose rapidly, the expansion of production was on the rise, the resumption of production was burning, the project was starting, and the market overheated phenomenon began to surge again. At this time, the reporter believes that the price increase of sponge titanium has moved the cheese of sponge titanium enterprises themselves , Diluting your profits, do it and cherish it, don't quickly lose the hard-won market!
However, when the price of sponge titanium rose to 81,000 yuan / ton, some media analyzed that the sponge titanium market was firm. At this time, the reporter analyzed that the market is still good, and the motivation for price increase is weak, thinking that the price has not risen, because the pace of expansion is accelerated, the import output has increased, and the market demand has only increased slightly, unless the production of sponge titanium is stable. Only then will the price increase. Subsequently, the reporter combined the upstream and downstream market conditions and wrote a price analysis of the titanium market around the National Day in 2019, thinking that the price of 81,000 yuan is difficult to increase because the expansion, resumption of production, and the start of new projects far exceed the slow growth of the downstream. .
"Titanium willfulness" when the market is good, "titanium tenderness" when the market falls. Only in the first quarter of 2020, the sponge titanium market has become chaotic. When the actual transaction price of most companies is around 76,000 yuan / ton, an enterprise directly hits around 70,000 yuan / ton. When the actual transaction price of most companies holding a group stabilized at about 73,000 yuan / ton, an enterprise directly hit about 65,000 yuan / ton. This phenomenon directly affects the signing of orders by downstream companies and affects the thinking of the industry chain. I really want to ask: Where is your bottom line for the price of sponge titanium? There are always companies that "smash" unreasonable prices, making it difficult for downstream companies to sign contracts with upstream companies.
Some people think that the price of titanium sponge has dropped because of the epidemic. This analysis is too far-fetched. If the expansion of production is slowed down, the resumption of production is slowed down, new projects are slowed down, and output growth is slowed down, the sponge titanium market will not fall back so fast. On April 2nd, the "Phenomenon of the" Smashing Pot "in the Titanium Market" published by this newspaper analyzed its own problems in the market. When the upper and lower levels do not match, the buyer ’s and seller ’s market adjustments will take effect. Do n’t blame the market ’s ruthlessness, but see clearly that the market is a little bit of sunshine and will immediately bring about the consequences of “self-inflicted‘ manyness ”. 81,000 yuan fell back to the current 70,000 yuan. This is the "evil effect".
For the price change of sponge titanium market in 2020, the reporter still judges that it depends on three factors: first, the output should not grow too fast, otherwise it will eat its own fruit; second, the supply of titanium tetrachloride still affects the price of sponge titanium; third, the downstream demand of the industrial chain The increase will continue to benefit the sponge titanium market. Judging from the current expansion of sponge titanium production, the titanium processing enterprises in the buyer's market are profitable, and the sponge titanium enterprises in the seller's market are unfavourable. In 2020, the price axis of titanium sponge should be 75,000 yuan / ton, floating around 5,000 yuan. From the recent price trend of sponge titanium, it has been running below the axis of 75,000 yuan. If you want to return to the operation above the axis of 75,000 yuan, you are also expected to expand production, resume production, and start cooperation with new projects. Otherwise, everyone's profits will be diluted, and everyone will mess up the market's position in the "face kick under the table".
A little bit of turmoil in the market seems weak and can't help but the wind, this is the blame caused by the "titanium willfulness". The reporter put the five-year analysis into a line and it can be seen that the titanium market is not shrinking, but is growing. In 2019, 80,000 tons of sponge titanium (including imported sponge titanium) once again proved that the market demand is still good, but The step of increasing the production of sponge titanium enterprises has made "titanium" hurriedly "titanium", leading to instability in the market, and has truly met the folk saying "don't eat hot tofu when you are anxious."
The chaos in the market all starts with their own willfulness, and the market affection is the original waywardness. "If you want to ring the bell, you still need to ring the bell." If you want the market to be good, please don't be too self-willed and overly self-willed. If you want to hold the price, you have to pay the price. The market has always been the referee of the survival of the fittest. Some sponge titanium enterprises will continue to be proud in the next five years, and some sponge titanium enterprises will be eliminated in the willful "shuffle". At that time, the tenderness will not work!